Well, what do we say!
We've decided this one's gonna be a graffiti post. Throw in all the criticism/abuses/words-of-encouragement that you have for both us and the Indian team in the comments section of this post and we shall put them up on the blog.
We must admit this much. Predicting a NZ win over AUS was one thing. But India's defeat to Bangladesh was well and truly beyond our 'predictive powers'. And dont even get us started on Pakistan's defeat to Ireland. We cant thank our stars enough for not trying to predict that one.
We'll be back with more venom for the next match and we hope the Indian team does so too.
On that positive note, cya around!
We've decided this one's gonna be a graffiti post. Throw in all the criticism/abuses/words-of-encouragement that you have for both us and the Indian team in the comments section of this post and we shall put them up on the blog.
We must admit this much. Predicting a NZ win over AUS was one thing. But India's defeat to Bangladesh was well and truly beyond our 'predictive powers'. And dont even get us started on Pakistan's defeat to Ireland. We cant thank our stars enough for not trying to predict that one.
We'll be back with more venom for the next match and we hope the Indian team does so too.
On that positive note, cya around!
5 comments:
Well Well.. Quite a rude shock that was to the Blue Billion!
And to be fair, I think it was quite brave of you to even attempt to predict the India Bangladesh match (Forget the Pak Ireland one, the latter has probably played less than 10 ODIs in all). I am still eager to see your answers on my previous comments and questions on the India Bangladesh Prediction post.
Also, I think it is inconsequential to be focusing too much on individual predictions. Keep up the good work and get back with more!
Hrishi.
i assume this will fall into the 25% of the mis-classified results ;)
go ahead a predict more ... when's the next one??? :)
- asterix
Hi Hrishi,
I have attempted to answer some of your questions here
Q. How have u gone about validating the models that you have built?
A. The models have been validated for the results of the last world cup as well as subsequent matches. For every match, information available upto the last match is considered for prediction
Q. Why is it that some players have a range of scores while others are assigned just one particular number?
A. All scores should be considered as ranges, unless mentioned otherwise. I think that an error of 10 runs is perfectly acceptable
The rest of the answers too would be posted soon by the core team (of which I am not a part, hence have limited knowledge :-) on the technical aspects )
PS: I think we did a mistake by predicting the India-Bangladesh match based on data, for, as you rightly pointed out, data does not exist.
Cricket is not mathematics, guys.
Here, 2+2 rarely equals to 4. Moreover,History can not be interpolated to predict future, especially in games like Cricket, where there are so many invisible,but inflential,factors affect the reasult.
Any way, best wishes for future predictions, where you have good number of past history.
@mayuresh..
Thanks for the answers. Did not get the time earlier to reply to your comment and india's loss to lanka meant that the weekend was filled with shock and despair. But now that the reality is sinking in, I am gradually regaining my senses. Coming to your models, have u used the last world cup for validating or developing your models? And how frequently are the models changed? As in do you build a new model for every match or do you just enter the new (latest) values of the variables in the model? How stable are the models? Would they change substantially from one match to another? What variables are used to account for certain current factors like weather conditions and nature of pitch or also whether the team will be batting first or second?
@anonymous
first, why don't u reveal your identity? and second, be a little more positive yaar. Just because the models failed to predict some results does not mean that you could undermine the power of mathematics. What do you mean 2+2 rarely equals 4? And if you are just looking at how close your results are to the actuals and are not interested in the reasons behind the predictions, you could as well consult an astrologer.
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