Into cricket? So are we. And when we were bored with being just that, we thought we'll do something cooler. We decided we'll play Nostradamus.
Yup, we claim we can predict who's gonna make how much and you'll see we ain't bluffing. We aren't as good as we would like to be yet, but our excitement got the better of us and we decided to come out with the predictions anyway. This is why you will see that ever-so-helpful 'Beta' tag in the title:D
Goes without saying that we'll keep coming out with more stuff and tune our predictions better.
Go right ahead, then and check out how we fare.
And yeah, that feedback stuff is pretty useful. Keep it coming!
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
FAQs
We've been getting quite a few queries and suggestions. A few clarifications...
Q. So do you people guess the answers or is there a method to the predictions?
A. There is a method, obviously. Guessing is not as easy as one might think it is.
Q. Where are the predictions for Australia's matches?
A. While building our model and testing it for older matches, we realised the algo rarely works for Australia's batsmen. We believe its because of strong interdependence between their performances. (No idea what that means, but what the hell...).
Q. Why dont you also predict win/loss probability?
A. We are at it as you read. And we think we'll be able to do it soon.
Q. Can you not predict for all players in a team?
A. As mentioned in the introduction, we cant do much with new players, for the simple reason that we have very little data on them.
Q. So do you people guess the answers or is there a method to the predictions?
A. There is a method, obviously. Guessing is not as easy as one might think it is.
Q. Where are the predictions for Australia's matches?
A. While building our model and testing it for older matches, we realised the algo rarely works for Australia's batsmen. We believe its because of strong interdependence between their performances. (No idea what that means, but what the hell...).
Q. Why dont you also predict win/loss probability?
A. We are at it as you read. And we think we'll be able to do it soon.
Q. Can you not predict for all players in a team?
A. As mentioned in the introduction, we cant do much with new players, for the simple reason that we have very little data on them.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Review, Ind vs SL 4th ODI, Feb 2007
From the previous post:
"In its current state, it surprisingly predicts a close win for India if it bats first and a comfortable win if it bats second."
Is that a great prediction or what! For the first time yesterday we decided to predict the win/loss chances. And we got it bang on target immediately!
We did a very ordinary job with Sri Lanka's scores this time. We also got all the half century makers wrong. We are pleased we got Sehwag's score and quite a few Lanka batsmen's ranges pretty correct though. The comparision table:
"In its current state, it surprisingly predicts a close win for India if it bats first and a comfortable win if it bats second."
Is that a great prediction or what! For the first time yesterday we decided to predict the win/loss chances. And we got it bang on target immediately!
We did a very ordinary job with Sri Lanka's scores this time. We also got all the half century makers wrong. We are pleased we got Sehwag's score and quite a few Lanka batsmen's ranges pretty correct though. The comparision table:
Friday, February 16, 2007
Ind vs SL, 4th ODI, Feb 2007
Our predictions for tomorrow's match:
We think there is a reasonable chance of Dravid coming good (inspite of our prediction) since data shows that he does well in series deciders.
And yes, Sehwag, the wild card of the cricketing world has a 20% chance of scoring a 70+ score.
We are also pleased to inform that our win/loss predictive model is doing great progress and should be out soon. In its current state, it surprisingly predicts a close win for India if it bats first and a comfortable win if it bats second. Our score predictions seem to suggest otherwise. Fingers crossed!
We think there is a reasonable chance of Dravid coming good (inspite of our prediction) since data shows that he does well in series deciders.And yes, Sehwag, the wild card of the cricketing world has a 20% chance of scoring a 70+ score.
We are also pleased to inform that our win/loss predictive model is doing great progress and should be out soon. In its current state, it surprisingly predicts a close win for India if it bats first and a comfortable win if it bats second. Our score predictions seem to suggest otherwise. Fingers crossed!
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Ind-SL 3rd ODI and Pak-SA final ODI, Feb 2007
We just seem to be getting better and better dont we!
Well ok, a few predictions for SA and SL weren't really close to the true figures, but did you even look at the rest?!
Given the kind of form he is in, who would've thought yousuf would fail? Well we did:D
And ofcourse, there's Mahela's bull's eye prediction!
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Sri Lanka Vs India, 2nd ODI, 2007
Predicted (scores to be read as 10-run ranges where not specified so)
Sri Lanka
Sanath Jayasuriya: 0-20
Mahela Jayawardane: 13
Kumara Sangakkara: 75+
T Dilshan: 28
Top Scorer: Sangakkara
India
Saurav Ganguly:35-45
Sachin Tendulkar: 62
Virendar Sehwag: 25
Rahul Dravid: 15-25
MS Dhoni: 55
Top Scorer: Sachin Tendulkar
Actual
Sri Lanka
Sanath Jayasuriya: 9
Mahela Jayawardane: 4
Kumara Sangakkara: 110
T Dilshan: 56
Top Scorer: Sangakkara
India
Saurav Ganguly:62
Sachin Tendulkar: 54
Virendar Sehwag: 19
Rahul Dravid: 5
MS Dhoni: 48
Top Scorer: Saurav Ganguly
Review
Dilshan and Ganguly did a lot better than we thought they would. Dravid fared worse, though we did predict he'd fail. Rest of them, close to target!
Sri Lanka
Sanath Jayasuriya: 0-20
Mahela Jayawardane: 13
Kumara Sangakkara: 75+
T Dilshan: 28
Top Scorer: Sangakkara
India
Saurav Ganguly:35-45
Sachin Tendulkar: 62
Virendar Sehwag: 25
Rahul Dravid: 15-25
MS Dhoni: 55
Top Scorer: Sachin Tendulkar
Actual
Sri Lanka
Sanath Jayasuriya: 9
Mahela Jayawardane: 4
Kumara Sangakkara: 110
T Dilshan: 56
Top Scorer: Sangakkara
India
Saurav Ganguly:62
Sachin Tendulkar: 54
Virendar Sehwag: 19
Rahul Dravid: 5
MS Dhoni: 48
Top Scorer: Saurav Ganguly
Review
Dilshan and Ganguly did a lot better than we thought they would. Dravid fared worse, though we did predict he'd fail. Rest of them, close to target!
South Africa vs Pakistan, 3rd ODI, 2007
South Africa v Pakistan, 9 Feb 2007
St George's Park, Port Elizabeth (day/night) : No Result
This was one of our first predictions and it appeared in a different blog. The match was called off owing to rain but we have reproduced it here cos we think it looks kinda nice;)
We avoid making predictions for new kids on the block. Predictions are to be looked at as ranges, even where not specified so. We believe that an error of 10 is pretty acceptable (till we bring it down that is:D).
Predicted
Younis Khan: 19
Abdul Razzaq: 30
Inzamam: 47
Mohammad Yousuf: 63
Shahid Afridi: 20
Top Scorer: Mohammad Yousuf / Inzamam
Actual
Younis Khan: 22
Abdul Razzaq: 27
Inzamam: 1
Mohammad Yousuf: 79
Shahid Afridi: 8
Top Scorer: Mohammad Yousuf
Analysis
We were way off with Inzi's score. But barring that, not a bad job is it!
St George's Park, Port Elizabeth (day/night) : No Result
This was one of our first predictions and it appeared in a different blog. The match was called off owing to rain but we have reproduced it here cos we think it looks kinda nice;)
We avoid making predictions for new kids on the block. Predictions are to be looked at as ranges, even where not specified so. We believe that an error of 10 is pretty acceptable (till we bring it down that is:D).
Predicted
Younis Khan: 19
Abdul Razzaq: 30
Inzamam: 47
Mohammad Yousuf: 63
Shahid Afridi: 20
Top Scorer: Mohammad Yousuf / Inzamam
Actual
Younis Khan: 22
Abdul Razzaq: 27
Inzamam: 1
Mohammad Yousuf: 79
Shahid Afridi: 8
Top Scorer: Mohammad Yousuf
Analysis
We were way off with Inzi's score. But barring that, not a bad job is it!
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